Tumour size and overall survival in a cohort of patients with unifocal glioblastoma: a uni- and multivariable prognostic modelling and resampling study

Abstract

Published models inconsistently associate glioblastoma size with overall survival (OS). This study aimed to investigate the prognostic effect of tumour size in a large cohort of patients diagnosed with GBM and interrogate how sample size and non-linear transformations may impact on the likelihood of finding a prognostic effect. In total, 279 patients with a IDH-wildtype unifocal WHO grade 4 GBM between 2014 and 2020 from a retrospective cohort were included. Uni-/multivariable association between core volume, whole volume (CV and WV), and diameter with OS was assessed with (1) Cox proportional hazard models +/- log transformation and (2) resampling with 1,000,000 repetitions and varying sample size to identify the percentage of models, which showed a significant effect of tumour size. Models adjusted for operation type and a diameter model adjusted for all clinical variables remained significant (p = 0.03). Multivariable resampling increased the significant effects (p < 0.05) of all size variables as sample size increased. Log transformation also had a large effect on the chances of a prognostic effect of WV. For models adjusted for operation type, 19.5% of WV vs. 26.3% log-WV (n = 50) and 69.9% WV and 89.9% log-WV (n = 279) were significant. In this large well-curated cohort, multivariable modelling and resampling suggest tumour volume is prognostic at larger sample sizes and with log transformation for WV.