Glioblastoma and radiotherapy: a multi-center AI study for survival predictions from MRI (GRASP study)

Abstract

BACKGROUND: The aim was to predict survival of glioblastoma at eight months after radiotherapy (a period allowing for completing a typical course of adjuvant temozolomide), by applying deep learning to the first brain MRI after radiotherapy completion. METHODS: Retrospective and prospective data were collected from 206 consecutive glioblastoma, IDH-wildtype patients diagnosed between March 2014-February 2022 across 11 UK centers. Models were trained on 158 retrospective patients from three centers. Holdout test sets were retrospective (n=19; internal validation), and prospective (n=29; external validation from eight distinct centers).Neural network branches for T2-weighted and contrast-enhanced T1-weighted inputs were concatenated to predict survival. A non-imaging branch (demographics/MGMT/treatment data) was also combined with the imaging model. We investigated the influence of individual MR sequences; non-imaging features; and weighted dense blocks pretrained for abnormality detection. RESULTS: The imaging model outperformed the non-imaging model in all test sets (area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve, AUC p=0.038) and performed similarly to a combined imaging/non-imaging model (p>0.05). Imaging, non-imaging, and combined models applied to amalgamated test sets gave AUCs of 0.93, 0.79, and 0.91. Initializing the imaging model with pretrained weights from 10,000s of brain MRIs improved performance considerably (amalgamated test sets without pretraining 0.64; p=0.003). CONCLUSIONS: A deep learning model using MRI images after radiotherapy, reliably and accurately determined survival of glioblastoma. The model serves as a prognostic biomarker identifying patients who will not survive beyond a typical course of adjuvant temozolomide, thereby stratifying patients into those who might require early second-line or clinical trial treatment.