The incidence of childhood cancer in Australia, 1983-2015, and projections to 2035
dc.contributor.author | Youlden, DR | |
dc.contributor.author | Baade, PD | |
dc.contributor.author | Green, Adèle C | |
dc.contributor.author | Valery, PC | |
dc.contributor.author | Moore, AS | |
dc.contributor.author | Aitken, JF | |
dc.date.accessioned | 2020-01-29T15:18:00Z | |
dc.date.available | 2020-01-29T15:18:00Z | |
dc.date.issued | 2019 | en |
dc.identifier.citation | Youlden DR, Baade PD, Green AC, Valery PC, Moore AS, Aitken JF. The incidence of childhood cancer in Australia, 1983-2015, and projections to 2035. Med J Aust. 2019. | en |
dc.identifier.pmid | 31876953 | en |
dc.identifier.doi | 10.5694/mja2.50456 | en |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/10541/622734 | |
dc.description.abstract | OBJECTIVES: To describe changes in childhood cancer incidence in Australia, 1983-2015, and to estimate projected incidence to 2035. DESIGN, SETTING: Population-based study; analysis of Australian Childhood Cancer Registry data for the 20 547 children under 15 years of age diagnosed with cancer in Australia between 1983 and 2015. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Incidence rate changes during 1983-2015 were assessed by joinpoint regression, with rates age-standardised to the 2001 Australian standard population. Incidence projections to 2035 were estimated by age-period-cohort modelling. RESULTS: The overall age-standardised incidence rate of childhood cancer increased by 34% between 1983 and 2015, increasing by 1.2% (95% CI, +0.5% to +1.9%) per annum between 2005 and 2015. During 2011-2015, the mean annual number of children diagnosed with cancer in Australia was 770, an incidence rate of 174 cases (95% CI, 169-180 cases) per million children per year. The incidence of hepatoblastoma (annual percentage change [APC], +2.3%; 95% CI, +0.8% to +3.8%), Burkitt lymphoma (APC, +1.6%; 95% CI, +0.4% to +2.8%), osteosarcoma (APC, +1.1%; 95%, +0.0% to +2.3%), intracranial and intraspinal embryonal tumours (APC, +0.9%; 95% CI, +0.4% to +1.5%), and lymphoid leukaemia (APC, +0.5%; 95% CI, +0.2% to +0.8%) increased significantly across the period 1983-2015. The incidence rate of childhood melanoma fell sharply between 1996 and 2015 (APC, -7.7%; 95% CI, -10% to -4.8%). The overall annual cancer incidence rate is conservatively projected to rise to about 186 cases (95% CI, 175-197 cases) per million children by 2035 (1060 cases per year). CONCLUSIONS: The incidence rates of several childhood cancer types steadily increased during 1983-2015. Although the reasons for these rises are largely unknown, our findings provide a foundation for health service planning for meeting the needs of children who will be diagnosed with cancer until 2035. | en |
dc.language.iso | en | en |
dc.relation.url | https://dx.doi.org/10.5694/mja2.50456 | en |
dc.title | The incidence of childhood cancer in Australia, 1983-2015, and projections to 2035 | en |
dc.type | Article | en |
dc.contributor.department | Cancer Council Queensland, Brisbane, QLD | en |
dc.identifier.journal | Medical Journal of Australia | en |
dc.description.note | en] | |
refterms.dateFOA | 2020-02-04T08:59:53Z |